How Ozempic and Wegovy Are Killing Alcohol Sales and Forcing Industry Transformation

The alcohol industry has spent decades battling declining consumption from Gen Z, health consciousness trends, and sober-curious movements. Now it faces a threat it never anticipated: prescription medications that make people physically less interested in drinking.

GLP-1 receptor agonists—medications like semaglutide (Ozempic, Wegovy) and tirzepatide (Mounjaro, Zepbound)—were initially developed to treat type 2 diabetes and obesity. But as millions of Americans began taking these drugs for weight loss, an unexpected side effect emerged: dramatically reduced alcohol consumption.

Morgan Stanley research suggests that GLP-1 users could see a potential 75% reduction in alcohol consumption, driven by 50% fewer drinking occasions and 50% fewer drinks per occasion SOURCE. A study by the American Medical Association found that 45.3% of GLP-1 patients who previously had at least one drink per week reported a drop in their alcohol consumption after starting to take their GLP-1 medication SOURCE.

The number of US adults taking semaglutide or tirzepatide drugs for weight loss more than doubled in the past year and a half, with 12.4% of respondents taking the medications compared to 5.8% in February 2024, according to the Gallup National Health and Well-Being Index SOURCE. Around 23% of U.S. households currently have a member using GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic or Wegovy SOURCE.

By 2030, households with GLP-1 users are projected to represent 35% of all food and beverage units sold SOURCE. Looking ahead, GLP-1s are expected to become the biggest drug class in history, with annual sales projected to potentially top $100 billion over the next five years SOURCE.

This is the story of how a pharmaceutical revolution designed to treat obesity became an existential threat to the alcohol industry—and why beverage companies that ignored the warning signs are now scrambling to respond.

The Unexpected Discovery: When Diabetics Stopped Drinking

The connection between GLP-1 medications and reduced alcohol consumption emerged not from clinical trials but from patient reports and observational studies.

Rapidly increasing prescription rates of long-acting GLP-1 agonist medicines like semaglutide have been accompanied by frequent informal reports of reduced alcohol intake and craving by patients SOURCE. The fact that substantial numbers of patients have obtained prescriptions for semaglutide and similar medications to help reduce heavy drinking—such "off-label" use, made in the absence of an FDA approval for this indication—is itself reason for carefully conducted, evidence-based clinical trials SOURCE.

Growing interest in using semaglutide to treat addiction is based on anecdotal reports from patients who claim it reduces their appetite and cravings for food, alcohol, cigarettes, and other drugs SOURCE. Clinical observation and some preliminary studies suggest the GLP-1 medication semaglutide—better known by brand names like Ozempic, Mounjaro, and Wegovy—can reduce cravings and help individuals with alcohol use disorder reduce or stop drinking SOURCE.

Anti-obesity drugs such as semaglutide (Ozempic, Wegovy) are also promising for the treatment of alcohol use disorder and alcohol-associated liver disease, as growing evidence suggests they reduce the motivation to drink alcohol SOURCE.

The Clinical Evidence: Randomized Trials Confirm the Effect

What began as anecdotal observation has been validated by rigorous clinical research.

A preliminary, phase 2 clinical trial has shown the potential benefit of a class of popular medications so far approved for control of diabetes and obesity to help reduce alcohol consumption and craving in individuals with alcohol use disorder SOURCE. The drug, injected weekly at low dosages for 9 weeks in the newly reported trial, is semaglutide (marketed as Ozempic and Wegovy) SOURCE.

Relative to those in the placebo group, those treated with semaglutide took significantly fewer drinks on days they consumed alcohol, and reported greater reductions in heavy drinking days during the trial SOURCE.

"When participants completed both pre- and post-treatment alcohol self-administration sessions, we observed greater reductions in the medication group," explained Dr. Hendershot SOURCE. "This is a key aspect of this study because this is an objective (rather than self-report) measure of alcohol consumption" SOURCE.

The observed magnitude of medication effects on heavy drinking, while preliminary, is promising especially considering the effect sizes observed for FDA-approved AUD treatments, and are also notable in that they were obtained at the two lowest doses of semaglutide used clinically SOURCE.

A 2022 clinical trial found that the early-generation GLP-1 medication exenatide lowered alcohol cravings in people with alcohol use disorder, and another trial published in February found that people with obesity and alcohol use disorder drank less when treated with semaglutide SOURCE.

How GLP-1 Drugs Reduce Alcohol Consumption: The Mechanisms

Scientists have identified several mechanisms through which GLP-1 drugs may reduce alcohol consumption.

GLP-1 drugs promote the release of insulin and make people feel full by mimicking the natural gut hormone glucagon-like peptide-1 SOURCE. The drugs also cause a physiological reaction in the gut: they slow down the movement of food and liquids from the stomach into the small intestine, a process known as gastric emptying SOURCE.

"People taking these drugs can't eat quite as much, because the food is staying in their stomach longer," explained DiFeliceantonio SOURCE. If the GLP-1 drugs delay gastric emptying, alcohol may take longer to reach the brain SOURCE.

"We know that slowing down a drug makes it less rewarding," DiFeliceantonio says—and reducing reward may help treat addiction SOURCE. "The substance matters, yes, but the speed at which it gets to your brain also matters" SOURCE.

A pilot study from the Fralin Biomedical Research Institute at VTC, released in October 2025 in Scientific Reports, found that these types of GLP-1 agonists slow the speed at which alcohol enters the bloodstream, which also slows the effects on the brain SOURCE.

The participants on GLP-1s consistently reported feeling less intoxicated SOURCE. "It seems like a really small thing, to just slow down [alcohol reaching the brain] a little," DiFeliceantonio says SOURCE. "From this study, we can't definitively say this is the reason that people taking GLP-1 medications drink less, but it's adding to this body of evidence of what the mechanism is" SOURCE.

GLP-1s control appetite by targeting the brain's reward pathway, and specifically the release of dopamine to the part of the brain linked to motivation, pleasure and reward SOURCE. "This modulation of the brain's reward system extends beyond food, with early evidence suggesting benefits in reducing alcohol misuse, drug dependence, and even gambling," said analyst Dix SOURCE.

Scientists are working to understand the underlying mechanisms, but one theory is that GLP-1s may slow alcohol absorption in the stomach, reducing its rewarding effects while increasing gastrointestinal side effects like nausea and vomiting SOURCE. Another hypothesis is that GLP-1s affect the brain's dopamine reward system, reducing cravings SOURCE.

The Liver Protection Discovery

In surprising new findings, Yale School of Medicine researchers found that GLP-1 receptor agonists may have direct protective effects on the liver as well SOURCE.

Researchers found that the drugs reduced an enzyme that metabolizes alcohol, which in turn decreased the production of toxic alcohol metabolites in experimental models SOURCE. "This is the first time that GLP-1 receptor agonists have been shown to regulate alcohol metabolism in the liver," says principal investigator Wajahat Mehal SOURCE.

Researchers observed that GLP-1 receptor agonists decreased levels of a liver enzyme known as Cyp2e1, which breaks down alcohol into a toxic metabolite called acetaldehyde SOURCE. "This is significant because alcohol itself is actually not the most toxic molecule to the liver," explains Mehal SOURCE. Rather, acetaldehyde is one of the major drivers of alcohol-related harm to the liver SOURCE.

"Even if some individuals don't reduce their alcohol intake while they're on a GLP-1 receptor agonist, they will probably still have hepatic protection, because fewer toxic metabolites will be produced in the liver," Mehal says SOURCE.

The Scale of Adoption: 12.4% and Climbing

The threat to the alcohol industry isn't theoretical—it's already here, and growing rapidly.

The number of US adults taking semaglutide or tirzepatide drugs for weight loss more than doubled in the past year and a half, with 12.4% of respondents taking the medications compared to 5.8% in February 2024 SOURCE. Around one in 10 Americans now take GLP-1 drugs, and this figure is only set to rise SOURCE.

As many as one in eight adults in the U.S. have used or are currently using a GLP-1 receptor agonist, according to a May 2025 report from non-profit Fair Health SOURCE. Around 23% of U.S. households currently have a member using GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic or Wegovy SOURCE.

By 2030, households with GLP-1 users are projected to represent 35% of all food and beverage units sold SOURCE. Forty-four percent of US employers with 500 or more employees and 64% of those with 20,000 or more now include weight loss drugs in their health plans SOURCE. Fourteen states cover GLP-1s for obesity under Medicaid SOURCE.

Looking ahead, GLP-1s are expected to become the biggest drug class in history, with annual sales projected to potentially top $100 billion over the next five years SOURCE. GLP-1 demand will likely be turbo charged as pill versions are launched over the next year or two, which will reduce cost concerns and eliminate the burden of weekly injections SOURCE.

Alcohol Consumption Data: The Numbers Are Devastating

Multiple studies have quantified the impact of GLP-1 medications on alcohol consumption, and the results are alarming for the beverage industry.

Morgan Stanley research suggests a potential 75% reduction in alcohol consumption among all patients taking GLP-1 drugs, driven by 50% fewer drinking occasions and 50% fewer drinks per occasion SOURCE. This contrasts with some estimates that suggest a 50% reduction in intake among just 50% of patients, implying about a 25% overall drop SOURCE.

A study by the American Medical Association found that 45.3% of GLP-1 patients who previously had at least one drink per week reported a drop in their alcohol consumption after starting to take their GLP-1 medication SOURCE. The study analyzed data from over 14,000 members of WeightWatchers and was commissioned after many taking anti-obesity drugs reported a reduced desire for alcohol SOURCE.

Data from consumer analytics platform CivicScience shows that 29% of GLP-1 users order fewer alcoholic drinks SOURCE. A study by Morgan Stanley reported that 63% of GLP-1 users spent less on restaurant dining and takeout after taking GLP-1s, in part because of lower alcohol consumption SOURCE.

Morgan Stanley research has suggested that nearly a quarter of GLP-1 users stopped drinking alcohol completely SOURCE.

Which Alcohol Categories Are Hit Hardest

The impact of GLP-1 medications varies significantly across alcohol categories.

Among drinkers who cut back, wine shows the steepest decline—52% reduced consumption, compared with 43% for beer and 40% for spirits SOURCE. Wine drinkers tend to be older, more female and more affluent SOURCE.

Behavioral differences between GLP-1 user types are also emerging: weight-management users cut back more than health-management users SOURCE. Social occasions favor portion-right serves and premium low/no alcohol options, while solitary, at-home occasions lean toward clean labels and calorie transparency SOURCE.

The Heavy Drinker Problem: Where 60% of Revenue Resides

Perhaps most devastating for the alcohol industry: GLP-1 drugs appear to have the strongest effect on heavy drinkers—the segment that generates the majority of industry revenue.

One estimate shows that the top 10% of alcohol drinkers in the United States account for nearly 60% of total alcohol sales SOURCE. If this relatively small group of heavy drinkers were to start GLP-1s and reduce drinking, this could amount to significant disruptions in revenue SOURCE.

Food and beverage companies with a highly concentrated customer base are more likely to be affected by GLP-1-related shifts in behavior and should be cautious about the potential bottom-line impact if their target customer begins treatment SOURCE.

Investor Response: Selling Alcohol Stocks

The financial community has taken notice, with prominent investors divesting from alcohol companies.

Terry Smith, a well-known UK fund manager, said in his recent annual shareholder letter that he'd sold his stake in Diageo, maker of Guinness and Johnnie Walker whisky SOURCE. He wrote: "[…] we suspect the entire drinks sector is in the early stages of being impacted negatively by weight-loss drugs SOURCE. Indeed, it seems likely that the drugs will eventually be used to treat alcoholism, such is their effect on consumption" SOURCE.

While alcohol stocks have been weak in recent years, Morgan Stanley analysts note they don't believe this level of potential long-term demand disruption is reflected in the companies' current cash flow estimates and valuations SOURCE.

Industry Response: Denial and Downplaying

Despite mounting evidence, most alcohol companies have publicly downplayed the GLP-1 threat.

"We don't have data to suggest that that's having a meaningful impact on the alcohol space," said Gavin Hattersley, CEO of Molson Coors, during its quarterly earnings call in April 2024 SOURCE. The sentiment seems to be shared by AB InBev SOURCE. Many brewers, wine makers and spirits producers remain silent on the topic SOURCE.

Spirits giant and Johnnie Walker-maker Diageo said earlier this month that it was "keeping a close eye" on GLP-1s but indicated that the impact so far "has not been significant" SOURCE.

Cornell's study noted no "meaningful" change in alcohol purchases among GLP-1 users, mirroring other literature which points to a potential reduction in intensity of drinking episodes rather than frequency SOURCE.

However, this public minimization contrasts sharply with the dire projections from financial analysts and the observable trends in consumption data.

The Broader Economic Context

GLP-1 adoption is reshaping consumer spending across categories, with alcohol caught in a larger transformation.

Households with at least one GLP-1 user reduce grocery spending by 5.3% within six months of adoption, with high-income households seeing spending down 8.2%, according to data from Cornell University and Numerator SOURCE. The largest reductions are in concentrated, calorie-dense, processed categories, notably a 10% decline in savory snacks SOURCE.

GLP-1 use often leads to broader changes in household behavior SOURCE. Grocery spending in GLP-1 households drops by 5.3%, with higher-income homes reducing spend by 8.2% SOURCE. Although spending partially rebounds over time, it does not return to previous levels, especially in calorie-dense categories SOURCE.

On average, GLP-1 users spent about 11% less on most categories of food SOURCE. Over half said they wanted to make even healthier food choices and about a third said that they were binge eating less or drinking less during treatment SOURCE.

The Structural Reset: GLP-1 as Accelerant

Analysts view GLP-1 drugs not as creating new trends but as dramatically accelerating existing shifts toward moderation.

"GLP-1s are the biological accelerant to an existing 'sober curious' moderation trend, that's been driven by social shifts and cost of living challenges," says Tom Ellis, CEO of innovation consultancy Brand Genetics SOURCE. "GLP-1s now sound the death knell of the 'volume growth' model for mainstream alcohol: brands banking on session drinking are heading into a headwind that marketing alone cannot fix" SOURCE.

New consumer patterns are driving not just behavioral changes, but a structural reset across the alcohol industry, accelerated by GLP-1 adoption SOURCE. External pressures are reshaping the alcohol industry: inflation is tightening consumer budgets, while producers face rising commodity prices, energy shocks and logistics disruptions that are inflating costs and squeezing margins SOURCE.

As stigma fades, these therapies are being reframed as holistic health tools, shifting consumption away from indulgence and toward intentionality SOURCE. Brands anchored in sugar and alcohol are under pressure SOURCE.

What Opportunities Remain

While the overall outlook is grim, some segments may benefit from GLP-1-driven changes.

It's not game over for alcohol SOURCE. There are still promising opportunities for brands that focus on premium options and value quality over quantity SOURCE.

Consumers are drinking less but with purpose SOURCE. GLP-1 is accelerating change across portfolios, formats and brand relevance SOURCE. Social occasions favor portion-right serves and premium low/no alcohol options SOURCE.

"We see some declines in dip mixes and salad dressing and those things that have high saturated fat or sugar, and alcohol," said Sally Lyons Wyatt of Circana SOURCE. But even within those categories there is opportunity SOURCE. "Everybody wants to reward themselves," and so players in these categories can benefit by talking about moderation or the extent to which they pair well with products that GLP-1 users want SOURCE.

The Discontinuation Factor: Not Permanent for Everyone

One potential bright spot: many GLP-1 users eventually stop taking the medication.

The study also found that despite the high cost being the primary reason for discontinuing use, 50% of previous GLP-1 users are likely to use the medications again in the future SOURCE. This indicates a sustained impact on the market as consumers move in and out of active medication use but retain the health-conscious behaviors they adopted SOURCE.

After discontinuing medication, consumers sustain some purchasing behaviors, with continued growth in produce, personal care, and household plastics/storage SOURCE. Other behaviors reverse post-medication, with a rebound in purchases of beverages and items from the refrigerated and frozen food departments SOURCE.

Non-diabetic patients are planning to stay on their medicine for an average of 1.5 years, with negative side effects (e.g., nausea) cited as a challenge SOURCE.

The Gen Z Interaction: Compounding Effects

GLP-1 drugs are hitting an alcohol industry already reeling from generational decline.

There is early data indicating younger consumers are drinking less than their cohorts of previous generations SOURCE. Interestingly, if you look at the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 songs from 2000 to 2024, songs about partying, drinking, and alcohol peaked around 2010 SOURCE. Musical preferences tend to form in teenage years, so it's possible today's younger generation of legal drinkers simply don't associate alcohol with the same appeal—or priority—as their older cohorts did SOURCE.

The combination of Gen Z's cultural rejection of heavy drinking with pharmaceutical appetite suppression among older cohorts creates a pincer movement that threatens volume growth across all demographics.

What the Industry Must Do

Beverage companies can no longer afford to ignore or downplay the GLP-1 threat.

"The rise of GLP-1 medications is a huge moment for the CPG industry," said Sally Lyons Wyatt, global executive vice president and chief advisor for Circana SOURCE. "Our research shows shopper priorities are evolving quickly and dramatically SOURCE. It's vital for retailers and manufacturers to pay close attention to these trends SOURCE. The key to future success will be adapting product selections and marketing to line up with the new health-focused mindset of this growing group of shoppers" SOURCE.

Lyons Wyatt cautions brands not to pigeonhole innovations to overly focus on the medications SOURCE. Rather, she encourages brands and retailers to think about how they can meet the needs of this group and the health-conscious consumers more broadly at the same time SOURCE.

Conclusion: A Pharmaceutical Disruption

The alcohol industry has survived Prohibition, changing demographics, health trends, and economic recessions. But GLP-1 drugs represent something unprecedented: a pharmaceutical intervention that physically reduces the desire to drink among millions of consumers.

With 12.4% of Americans already taking these medications—a figure that more than doubled in 18 months—and projections showing GLP-1 households representing 35% of all beverage sales by 2030, the industry faces a crisis of demand it cannot marketing its way out of.

Morgan Stanley's projection of a potential 75% reduction in alcohol consumption among GLP-1 users, combined with the concentration of 60% of alcohol sales among the heaviest 10% of drinkers, creates a perfect storm. If heavy drinkers—the industry's most profitable segment—begin taking GLP-1 medications at significant rates, revenue could collapse far faster than current forecasts suggest.

The mechanisms are clear: GLP-1 drugs slow gastric emptying, reduce alcohol's rewarding effects, diminish cravings through dopamine pathway modulation, and decrease production of toxic liver metabolites. The effects are consistent across clinical trials, population studies, and consumer surveys.

Wine faces the steepest declines (52% reduction among GLP-1 drinkers who cut back), followed by beer (43%) and spirits (40%). Social drinking occasions shift toward premium low-alcohol options. Volume growth models predicated on session drinking are, as Brand Genetics CEO Tom Ellis warned, "heading into a headwind that marketing alone cannot fix."

The industry's public response—minimization and denial—mirrors the initial reactions to Gen Z's rejection of drinking culture. But while generational trends unfold over decades, pharmaceutical adoption accelerates at pharmaceutical speed. GLP-1 usage more than doubled in 18 months. Annual sales are projected to top $100 billion within five years. Pill versions launching soon will eliminate injection barriers and drive adoption even faster.

This is not a trend the alcohol industry can wait out. It's a biological intervention reducing the fundamental human desire for intoxication. Companies that continue dismissing GLP-1 drugs as having "no meaningful impact" will discover—too late—that their most profitable customers have been medically transformed into moderate drinkers or abstainers.

The pharmaceutical revolution has arrived. The alcohol industry's response will determine which companies survive.